Texas top 10 explained (kind of).

By Shad Kline, 10/1/2019

The Texas top 10 public schools has had some pretty good changes most weeks.  Here is a look at which teams have moved into and out of the top 10, which teams have moved within the top 10 and why.

We will start with Division I, I didn’t do a preaseason ranking so we will go with the first ranking after week 1.

Week 1

  1. McLean
  2. Borden County
  3. Balmorhea
  4. White Deer
  5. Sterling City
  6. Leakey
  7. Blum
  8. Milford
  9. Ira
  10. Garden City

McLean, having won state last year, was given the benefit of the doubt and started at #1.  That would turn out to be short lived though as Balmorhea would take over after week 2.

Week 2

  1. Balmorhea
  2. McLean
  3. Borden County
  4. Sterling City
  5. Leakey
  6. Ira
  7. White Deer
  8. Milford
  9. Garden City
  10. Paducah

The only other major moves in week 2 would be that Blum would drop out of the top 10 allowing Paducah to slide into the #10 spot.  Everyone else in the top 10 would make small shifts, but would relatively stay the same.  Remember that I was still tweaking the system trying to get teams moved into the correct spots, which was still widely unknown after only 2 games.  A lot of the ratings were largely based on last years final ratings.  Week 3 wouldn’t be much different.

Week 3

  1. Balmorhea
  2. Borden County
  3. Ira
  4. McLean
  5. Sterling City
  6. Leakey
  7. White Deer
  8. Crowell
  9. Milford
  10. Paducah

Ira was the big mover jumping from 6 to 3 largely due to 3 teams ahead of them dropping rating points.  Crowell made their debut in the top 10 at #8 while Garden City slid just out of the list.

Week 4

  1. Balmorhea
  2. Borden County
  3. Ira
  4. McLean
  5. Sterling City
  6. Leakey
  7. White Deer
  8. Rankin
  9. Garden City
  10. May

Some pretty significant changes in the lower half of the top 10 as Rankin finds their way into the top for the first time this year, Garden City moving back in from #11 and May also coming in at #10, making the list for the first time this year.  Of course anytime someone breaks into the top 10, someone has to drop out and those teams were Crowell, Milford and Paducah.  Milford has had some injuries and it has cost them in rating points.  Don’t be surprised when they show back up in the list as players start getting healthy.

Week 5

  1. Borden County – moving into the #1 spot for the first time this year after beating #7 White Deer.
  2. Ira – One of the most consistent teams this year, has slid up to #2.
  3. Balmorhea – Not covering the spread against Grandfalls-Royalty cost the bears the #1 spot.  Is Grandfalls that good? Or did Balmorhea just have an off game?
  4. McLean – Still holding onto the #4 spot.  Ben Crocket will keep them as a contender as long as he stays healthy.  Not a one man team by any means, but with a talent like Crocket, it sometimes can seem that way.
  5. Sterling City – Pretty much more of the same from SC, good solid wins and taking care of business. 
  6. Leakey – No talk about Leakey, and I think they like it that way.  They are the top rated team on the East half of the playoff bracket.  AT&T?  Maybe!
  7. Paducah – Sliding from outside all the way to #7 after dominating Motley County 88-46, a game in which they went in as a 13 point dog.  Beware the Dragon.
  8. White Deer – Having trouble with the best of the best, but still lurking around.  We will find out if they can be a contender when they face off with district foe McLean for the DC and the better playoff slot.
  9. Rankin – A rare occasion in which a team gains rating points and still drops in the rankings.  They moved from #8 to #9 after beating Garden City by a couple of TD’s, when they were favored by an extra point.  Blame Paducah for the drop in ranking, as they just slid the scale.
  10.  May – Holds the #10 spot for the second week in a row.  In the west I would say they were on the outside looking in, but in the East, a very significant contender for the title game.

Coming up in week 6

  1. Borden County –  BYE
  2. Ira – 45 point favorite over DI #25 Ropes
  3. Balmorhea – 45 point favorite over TCAL #3 El Paso Faith
  4. McLean – 45 point favorite over DI #20 Happy
  5. Sterling City – 21 point favorite over DI #9 Rankin
  6. Leakey – 45 point favorite over DI #32 Eden
  7. Paducah – 45 point favorite over DII #13 Whitharral
  8. White Deer – 26 point favorite over DI #13 Milford
  9. Rankin – 21 point underdog to DI #5 Sterling City
  10. May – 45 point favorite over DI #37 Newcastle

Division II seems to be a little down this year all the way across the board.  Most years the top DI and top DII schools end the year pretty close in rating, and flip flop for the #1 overall spot.  This year it doesn’t seem to be the case.

Week 1

  1. Strawn
  2. Jayton
  3. Richland Springs
  4. Motley County
  5. Grandfalls-Royalty
  6. Blanket
  7. Oakwood
  8. Blackwell
  9. Groom
  10. Whitharral

It shouldn’t be a surprise that I started off last years champions at #1.  They have won 2 in a row, so someone had to knock them back a couple of rating notches before I moved Jayton into the top spot.  Borden County did it in week 1, but it wasn’t until week 4 that Strawn slid out of the top spot.  Also, just like in division I, the power ratings after weeks 1, 2 & 3 is nothing more than an educated guess based on very limited information.  So lets take a look at weeks 2 and 3.

Week 2

  1. Strawn
  2. Jayton
  3. Richland Springs
  4. Motley County
  5. Grandfalls-Royalty
  6. Blanket
  7. Blackwell
  8. Oakwood
  9. Groom
  10. Calvert

Not much change, Blackwell and Oakwood switched spots as did Calvert and Whitharral.

Week 3

  1. Strawn
  2. Jayton
  3. Grandfalls-Royalty
  4. Blanket
  5. Groom
  6. Blackwell
  7. Oakwood
  8. Richland Springs
  9. Motley County
  10. Calvert

Same 10 teams, slightly different order.  (Once again, a result of the week 3 adjustments that I make every year.

Week 4

  1. Jayton
  2. Motley County
  3. Strawn
  4. Grandfalls-Royalty
  5. Blackwell
  6. Oakwood
  7. Richland Springs
  8. Groom
  9. Blanket
  10. Calvert

Same 10 teams, once again, different order.  Jayton moved into #1 after Strawn struggled with a very good private school team.  Motley County made a huge jump after a huge win over a top DI school, Crowell.  Blanket started sliding down the list after they lost to May.  Which brings us to this week, week 5.

Week 5

  1. Jayton – Holding steady at the top with consistency and well balanced on both sides of the ball.
  2. Grandfalls-Royalty – As mentioned in the DI article, GR played Balmorhea a lot closer than expected.  Was Balmorhea off or is GR that good?
  3. Strawn – Held their ground with a win over Milford and doing so within 1 point of the spread.  I’m actually a little surprised that it was even that close as the Bulldogs were without Pendleton and I expected Strawn to take advantage of that.
  4. Calvert – Where did they come from?  They’ve been lurking at the #10 spot all year and all of a sudden just blows up Oakwood 47-14 after being a 27 point underdog.  That’s a 60 point swing!  What happened that made that much of a difference?  No, seriously, I want to know!
  5. Blackwell – from 8 to 7 to 6 to 5.  Hmmmmmm, better watch ‘em.  Just Sayin.
  6. Gordon – Same exact question as the Calvert game.  Gordon has made huge strides since slipping to Waco Methodist in week 1.  Is Blanket missing players?  Is Gordon starting to come into their skin?  Who knows?  But it’s starting to make THE rivalry against Strawn in early November look a LOT more interesting.
  7. Richland Springs – Don’t be fooled.  RS is still waiting for the prodigal son to return to the field.  Landon Burkhart should return at the end of October.  I bet we see RS start sliding up this list when that happens.
  8. Motley County – I can’t figure out the Matadors this year.  The beat Crowell, but lose to Spur and Paducah?  All 3 good teams, but its not like they were all close games.  MC is kinda all over the place. 
  9. Groom – I’m sorry to say that I don’t know much about the Tigers this year.  But they have been right here in the bottom half of the top 10 all year, and I know that they are always a team that can grab a tiger by the tail.
  10. Oakwood – Well we already know why Oakwood dropped to #10, talk to the Trojans over at Calvert.

Coming up in week 6

  1. Jayton – 45 point favorite over DI #44 Rotan
  2. Grandfalls-Royalty – 45 point favorite over DI #40 Fort Davis
  3. Strawn – 11 point favorite over DI #12 Garden City
  4. Calvert – 45 point favorite over DI #31 Coolidge
  5. Blackwell – 45 point favorite over DI #68 Veribest
  6. Gordon – 45 point favorite over DI #39 Zephyr
  7. Richland Springs – 34 point favorite over TAIAO #2 San Antonio FEAST
  8. Motley County – 3 point underdog to DI #15 Knox City
  9. Groom – BYE
  10. Oakwood – 6 point underdog to DI #23 Union Hill