On the outside looking in

About this time of year I start looking at numbers and start evaluating things. Sometimes it is something that would make sense to others, and sometimes it is just my mind rambling and I get to wondering how things would look by the numbers. Just a warning to anyone who reads this……. I’m not sure where this fits in that.

Ideally, in a perfect world, the districts throughout the state would all be evenly matched and the best teams would go to the playoffs with the best teams winning state, the teams would all be ranked properly and the games would match the spreads. However, in the actual world we live in, this is not the case. The top 32 is not the 32 teams that make the playoffs, its not the top 16 in the second round, or the top 8 in the quarterfinals. Rarely do we see the top four in the semis, and every once in a while we get to see the top 2 ranked teams make it to state. I’ve put together a table, based on Sixmania’s current ratings (rankings) of UIL Division I that shows just where we are as far as who we are sending to the playoffs.

A little explanation about the table. I put in 5 categories, and the first 2 coincide with each other. #1 is the average rank of teams and #2 is the average rating of teams. Those 2 things tend to follow each other, although there could be a case where a higher average ranked district could possibly have a lower average rating. In fact, there is a case like that in my table. District 16 has a better average rank (lower is better) than district 9, but district 9 has the better average rating (higher is better). Moving on….. Category 3 just shows the rank of the highest ranked team and category 4 shows the lowest. Category 5 shows the # of teams in the top 32. For state, that number will be 32. for East and West, ideally should be 16, for each region it should be 8 and for each district it should be 2.

State:

avg rankavg ratingHighestLowest# in top 32
State37.0306.4317332

How did I get those numbers? First off, this is UIL Division I rankings, not overall or national. There are 73 teams in UIL division 1 and so the rating will be exactly half of 74 which is 37. The average rating is just that, the average rating of all 73 teams. The Highest rank is obviously 1 and the lowest is 73, the number of teams. # of teams in the top 32 in state……… 32.

East vs West

avg rankavg ratingHighestLowest# in top 32
West31.3323.0217020
East43.1288.4197312

The west seems to be dominant this year. I’m sure that there are people that will disagree, but I’m going by the numbers, not opinion. The West has a much higher everything, average Rank, Rating, the top 8 teams are all in the West, even their worst team is ranked higher than the east’s worst team. The biggest thing here however is the west has 20 of the top 32 teams in the state. Only 15 of those can make it to the playoffs. Leaving at least 5 top 32 teams (based on this weeks rankings) on the basketball court when the playoffs start. How does 20 – 16 = 5? There are 4 districts in the west with more than 2 top 32 teams in it. One of those districts has 4. So 3 districts will leave a top 32 team at home and one district will leave TWO top 32 teams at home. So, if the ranking did not change, (they will) that is 5 teams in the top 32 that will not be playing a playoff game this year in football from the west half of the bracket. There is also a district in the west with has only 1 team in the top 32, so they will be for sure sending at least 1 non-top ranked team to the playoffs. (I guess that team is on the inside looking out?). The east is just the opposite. They have 3 districts with only 1 top 32 team, and 1 district with none. One district with 3. So the district with 3 will be leaving a top 32 team out of the playoffs, whereas the districts with 1 will be sending someone not in the top to the playoffs, and the district with none will be sending both playoff teams out of the top 32.

By Region

avg rankavg ratingHighestLowest# in top 32
Region 129.8326.7116211
Region 232.9319.322709
Region 341.3293.9815697
Region 445.1282.519735

Hopefully what I’m doing with these tables is starting to make sense, so I’m not going to go into long detail as I did on East vs West. Region 1, 3 top 32 don’t go, nobody outside of top 32 should go. Region 2, 2 top 32 miss out, 1 team outside top 32 should make the playoffs. Region 3, 1 top team is out, 2 lower ranked teams should go. Region 4, none of the teams in the top 32 should have to miss, but at least 3 non-top 32 teams should make it.

By District

avg rankavg ratingHighestLowest# in top 32
District 125.5341.731613
District 237.8304.6617582
District 331.8318.9412623
District 423.2344.524413
District 544.8284.1824631
District 635.0315.202642
District 729.5331.763702
District 821.6348.645454
District 941.4294.2726652
District 1042.6289.4420661
District 1130.8321.9016553
District 1250.0271.3815691
District 1355.2259.1634710
District 1444.3285.9711722
District 1539.8299.0718541
District 1638.8291.699732

This is where I’m going to get into the detail of who in the top 32 miss the playoffs and who outside of the top 32 get in.

District 1 has 3 teams in the top 32, McLean (#1), White Deer (10) and Valley (30). McLean has already beaten White Deer and should win out to take District Champions (DC for the rest of the post). White Deer and Valley play in week 11 for what should be the runner-up position, with White Deer being the heavy favorite. Which would leave Valley out.

District 2 has 2 in the top 32 (I’m going to just say the top (and bottom) from now on…… the 32 will just be implied.) Happy (17) and Nazareth (29). Petersburg is just outside at #33 and could take the runner-up away from Nazareth in week 11. Of course if that happens, Petersburg would then be a top rated team.

District 3 has 3 in the top. Knox City (12), Paducah (13), and Crowell (19), Knox City has already beaten both Paducah and Crowell, and should win this week against Chillicothe. Crowell and Paducah play this week for the runner-up position. Winner will go to the playoffs, loser will start basketball after week 11.

District 4 has 3 in the top. Ira (4), Spur (8) and Aspermont (25). Ira has already beaten Spur, Spur has already beaten Aspermont. Aspermont and Ira play this week and Aspermont can force a 3 way tie with a win, otherwise Ira and Spur will be filling the playoff positions leaving a #25 out in the cold.

District 5 only has 1 top ranked team. Ropes (24). They will be taking bottom team into the dance and it will most likely be #42 ranked Morton.

District 6 has 2 and has a good shot at taking those two teams into the playoffs. Borden County (2) and Klondike (22) are in the drivers seat to take 1st and 2nd respectively. (No O’Donnell and Grady, I’m not counting you out…. I know neither of you will roll over and not try to bust my spreads and try to beat Klondike for the runner-up position.)

District 7 is pretty solid as far as which two teams are most likely to go. They have 2 teams in the top 10 and the next best team is at 39. Balmorhea (3) and Rankin (6) will play next week for the DC.

District 8. Poor poor district 8. Or maybe I should say rich rich district 8. The only district in the state that can claim having 4 top teams featuring powerhouses Sterling City (5) and Garden City (7) as well as Westbrook (23) and Highland (28). Sterling City has won all 3 district games thus far with only Garden City left in week 11. Garden City has Highland this week and SC next week. Odds are definitely for Sterling City and Garden City to take first and second in the district which will leave Westbrook and Highland as two of the top ranked teams in division I that misses the playoffs.

District 9. 2 top teams Saint Jo (26) and Newcastle (32) will battle it out this week, and the funny thing is, Newcastle isn’t in a very good position to make the playoffs. They will need to win this week to force a 3 way tie IF Saint Jo beats Perrin-Whitt in week 11. Otherwise there is a possibility of a top team staying home and a lower ranked team going to the playoffs. Of course the rankings can all change depending on scores and spreads.

District 10. Blum (20) is the lone top team in this district and have pretty much sealed the DC. They play Abbott this week to make it official. Aquilla seems to be in the best position for the runner-up ranked at 36.

District 11. The 3 top ranked teams are Milford (16), Avalon (21) and Coolidge (31). I believe Milford will finally be playing at full strength and should be able to walk away with wins over Coolidge this week and Avalon in week 11 for the DC. Avalon beat Coolidge last week in what was effectively the runner-up game. Coolidge takes their top 32 ranking and starts basketball.

District 12. Union Hill (15). That’s all. High Island at 56 and Leverett’s Chapel at 60 will face off this week to see which teams gets into the runner-up playoff position.

District 13. Nobody in this district cracked the top 32 this week. Eden is the closest at 34 and Robert Lee is next at 46. Veribest at 57 however is in a better position to make the playoffs as they and Eden are both undefeated in district play. That will change this week as they play each other and Eden still has to get past Robert Lee. This district will have a higher chance of a 3 way tie than most if Eden beats Veribest this week.

District 14. 2 top teams, May (11) and Gorman (27). The other 2 teams in this District are ranked 67 and 72 and shouldn’t be a factor in the district race of 2. May and Gorman play this week for the DC.

District 15. Jonesboro (18) is the front runner and the only team in the top. Zephyr beat Evant so should end up in second. Evant could challenge Jonesboro though and cause a 3 way tie for first, or if Lometa does something crazy, it could end up being a 3 way tie for second. And then there is always the possibility of lots of crazy and then who knows what could happen in this district. However it turns out, someone outside of the top 32 gets in.

District 16. Leakey (9) and Nueces Canyon (14) are the two top ranked teams. Some people disagree with my order of ranking on these two as NC just beat Leakey this last week. Both teams should win out the rest of the season making Nueces Canyon the DC and Leakey taking Runner-up.